Peking University Guanghua proposes economic restart: get 900 billion cash coupons and consumer coupons
The epidemic of New Coronary Pneumonia has spread rapidly around the world, directly impacting the real economy and causing a huge disaster on the global economic and social level.Although the epidemic prevention and control and economic restart have been leading the world in recent years, on the contrary, the first quarter economic data shows that the new crown epidemic has had an exogenous impact on the economic and social order once in a hundred years, and a series of monetary policies and fiscalCompared with the post-epidemic economic reconstruction goals in the complex situation and the downward pressure that will be faced in the longer term, the policy is weak and fragmented quickly, and the policy goals are not clear.The 1929 Great Depression was delayed because of insufficient policy strength, which is a lesson from history.The scale of the downward pressure on the economy following the weak economic inertia conference is even more difficult to solve.At present, we must be determined at the next level, with stronger impetus, to introduce economic recovery and reconstruction programs with variable strength, so that the economy can regain vitality.  Recently, the Guanghua School of Management of Peking University has organized several professors to make suggestions on the restart of the Chinese economy after the epidemic. Based on the nature of the epidemic and the changes in the core logic of the Chinese economy, they have put forward a package of policy recommendations.For individual industrial and commercial households, in terms of providing more job opportunities, boosting consumption is better and more direct than investment. Large-scale issuance of consumer coupons can be used as a fiscal policy option.The consumption vouchers are mostly used during the rapid economic downturn. The government increases the consumption of residents through transfer payments. The increase in consumption drives the production of enterprises, the increase in production provides jobs, and the employment promotes consumption. The whole process is even a virtuous cycle and has a multiplier effect.  Our joint research with Ant Financial Services analyzed the 3.5 million sets delivered by the Hangzhou Municipal Government through the Alipay platform on March 27 and April 3, with a total value of 2.After the implementation of the US $ 500 million consumer voucher, it was found that the implementation of consumer vouchers has a positive effect on driving consumption after the epidemic.A financial subsidy of 1 yuan can drive an average of 3.New consumption of more than 5 yuan; consumption coupon surface quota, the stronger the pulling effect, the pulling effect will not lead to the substitution of future consumption; the consumption stimulus effect on different industries and populations has not been affected by the “digital divide”.  At the same time, through a comparative study of the effects of consumer vouchers across Guangxi, we find that consumer vouchers’ boosting effect on consumption is equally significant in relatively underdeveloped regions, and the multiplier effect is even greater.The introduction of digital consumer coupons that are flexible and in line with people’s psychology can form an accurate “boost” (behavior promotion) effect on people’s behavior, and can use relatively reduced financial expenditure to achieve a multiplier effect.  Therefore, we propose to adopt a “double-layer” consumption incentive plan to public cash coupons for low-income people and diseased areas; at the same time, implement large-scale consumer coupon issuance nationwide.The scale of the plan is 900 billion yuan.  First, for low-income people and the employed population in Hubei, there is a total of 1,000 yuan in cash coupons (that is, consumer coupons with 100% government subsidies).According to data from the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, the number of employed people in China reached 7 in December 2019.747.1 billion people, labor participation in competition 55.33% (7.7471/14).If the employment income of less than 3,000 yuan per month is recognized as a low-income group, this group accounts for 31%.Therefore, it is estimated that the number of low-income employed people except Hubei is about 2.2.3 billion people[(14-0.5917) × 55.33% × 31%)], the employed population in Hubei Province is about 3273.880,000 people.Therefore, the cash voucher subsidy amount is: 2627.3.1 billion (amount of subsidies for low-income employed people except Hubei + amount of subsidies for employees in Hubei Province = 22999).180,000 × 1000 yuan +3273.880,000 × 1000 yuan).The Engel’s coefficient of this group is very high, and income is basically spent to maintain daily operations.To accumulate cash coupons for this ethnic group, the main policy objective is to bail out and rescue people’s livelihood.  In terms of specific implementation, the release of cash coupons can explore and eliminate the “digital divide”, thereby dividing more than 200 million low-income people into a mobile Internet-based digital economic system.Through the coordination of telecommunications, third-party payment platforms, civil affairs departments, and financial departments, the beneficiaries are identified and digital cash vouchers are issued accurately.We estimate that the fiscal expenditure on bridging the “digital divide” is about 120-140 billion (purchasing mobile phones and one-year data packages at a cost price of about 600-700 yuan per person).It is worth noting that the long-term expansion of China’s digital economy infrastructure and the large number of innovations in application scenarios have brought more space for the design and implementation of public policies.  Roughly speaking, the nationwide accumulative total of 500 billion US dollars of consumer vouchers will be allocated by the state and allocated by central government funds. Local governments will explore “one city, one policy” based on local conditions. Although the specific conditions vary from place to place and the degree of development of the digital economy is different, the Hangzhou case has great implications for the consumption growth that can be brought about by the implementation of consumer vouchers within a scale.Take Hangzhou 3.Five times of the new consumption pull factor calculation, the cancellation of 500 billion consumer coupons can bring one.The total social retail sales of 75 trillion yuan led to 4.25% of total social retail sales increased.Members of the Macro Policy Research Group of Guanghua School of Management, Peking University: Liu Qiao, Xu Xianping, Zhou Li’an, Chen Yuyu, Zhang Zheng, Hue, Tang Yao, Zhang Lin, Gao Qianyun, Zhang Jiahui Sauna Night Net Editor Sun Yong proofreading Wei Zhuo